The Influence of Aging on the Prognostic Value of the Revised Cardiac Risk Index for Postoperative Cardiac Complications in Vascular Surgery Patients

Objective

The Lee-risk index [Lee-index] was developed to predict major adverse cardiac events [MACE]. However, age is not included as a risk factor. The aim was to assess the value of the Lee-index in vascular surgery patients among different age categories.

Methods

Of 2 642 patients cardiovascular risk factors were noted to calculate the Lee-index. Patients were divided into four age categories; ≤ 55(n=396), 56–65 (n=650), 66–75 (n=1 058) and >75 years (n=538). Outcome measures were postoperative MACE (cardiac death, MI, coronary revascularization and heart failure). The performance of the Lee-index was determined using C-statistics within the four age groups.

Results

The incidence of MACE was 10.9%, for Lee-index 1, 2 and ≥3; 6%, 13% and 20%, respectively. However, the prognostic value differed among age groups. The predictive value for MACE was highest among patients under 55 year (0.76 vs 0.62 of patients aged>75). The prediction of MACE improved in elderly (aged>75) after adjusting the Lee-index with age, revised risk of operation (low, low-intermediate, high-intermediate and high-risk procedures) and hypertension (0.62 to 0.69).

Conclusion

The prognostic value of the Lee-index is reduced in elderly vascular surgery patients, adjustment with age, risk of surgical procedure, and hypertension improves the Lee-index significantly.

Keywords: Cardiac Risk, Vascular surgery, Prognosis, Elderly